AI to boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if gaps are bridged

23 Sep 2025

Artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 thanks to productivity gains and lower trade costs, according to a World Trade Organisation (WTO) report.

However, the report says that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth, policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.

William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said: 'This report is a call to action for business and policymakers worldwide to ensure we realise the full benefits of AI in boosting global trade, productivity and skills.

'It identifies a possible AI premium for global economic growth of 12-13% and goods export growth of up to 37% by 2040. AI can boost exports by reducing red tape, speeding up journey times, and cutting customs delays. AI-services are also highly exportable, and can be a major source of growth, in an area where the UK is already a world leader.

'But tariff and technical barriers to trade need to be dealt with to allow AI to realise these full gains. We also need to ensure that electronic transmission of services across the world remains tariff-free.'